Interest rate II: The time BEFORE and AFTER the raise of interest rate 息口系列二: 加息前後
On 29th June, US finally announced to raise interest rate by 0.25 percantage points. Today, the writer want to talk about what happens to the financial market at the time before and after the interest rate was raised.
First of all, before talking on it, let's ignore the time, and just discuss on the effect on the raising of interest rate!
To the stock market, as the interest rate is increased, the cost of investment (either the cost of borrowing money or the opportunity cost from losing interest in saving account) would increase. Thus, it would normally led to less investment on the stock market. Some investors would leave the market and therefore the stock would face a great shock.
To the currency market, say the US currency, as the interest rate of holding US dollars increase, many people would like buy and hold US dollars compare to those foreign currency of which the interest rate hasn't be raised. As a result, the US currency would appreciate while others depreciate.
Some of you may say "What!? How come today's stock market rebound so much just after the US Fed made its announcement on raising interest rate?" Yes, you are correct! This comes to our topic today.
As mentioned in INTERST I, before the announcement of US fed, the writer and many other investors have already predicted the raise of interest rate. When investors have made their prediction, they would immediately reflect it on the market. For the stock market investors, they would leave the market or take profit first, and therefore led to shock in stock market. For Currency market, just opposite as mentioned above.
However, after the announcement of US Fed, as the raise of interest rate by 0.25 %pts is already under the expectation, the market no need to make another adjustment on it. Instead, if the US Fed does not raise interest rate or raise too much which is out of the expectation of the market investors, both the currency and stock market would change. This time, since the term used by US fed is comparatively gentle, and the market expects the US GDP growth would deccelerate, thus the pressure of inflation decrease and the stock market rebound!

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